Spot market transactions are sluggish, and there is a slight inventory buildup in social inventory. In the short term, the pressure of inventory buildup may continue. [SMM Morning Tin News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on June 30, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) remained in the doldrums during the night session, closing near 268,100 yuan/mt, down 0.59% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce responded to questions from reporters regarding tariff negotiations between the US and relevant countries: China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests in exchange for so-called tariff relief. (2) US President Trump stated that he believes there is no need to extend the July 9 trade deadline, and countries must reach agreements with the US before this deadline to avoid higher tariffs. On Friday, US Treasury Secretary Besent said, "Some countries have offered us very good agreements, but it may not be possible to complete all negotiations before Trump's April 2 tariffs on specific countries are set to resume. If we can reach agreements with 10 to 12 of our 18 major trading partners—and there are another 20 important trading relationships—then I believe we can complete all trade negotiations before the US Labor Day (September 1)." (3) Tariffs: ① Canada imposes a 50% tariff on steel imports exceeding quotas. ② Japan and the US held a seventh round of ministerial-level negotiations regarding the Trump administration's high tariff policies.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major production areas such as Yunnan has tightened. Entering June, some smelters are considering production halts for maintenance or minor production cuts (bullish ★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: Following the installation rush, orders for PV tin strips in east China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have dropped. Electronics industry: The electronics terminal market in south China has entered the off-season. Coupled with high tin prices, end-users have strong wait-and-see sentiment, and orders are only maintained to meet immediate needs. Other sectors: Demand for tinplate, chemicals, etc. remains stable, with no unexpected growth observed.

Spot Market: Last week, the spot tin ingot market saw sluggish transactions and a minor inventory buildup in social inventory amid "large price fluctuations, persistent weak demand, and weak supply and demand." In the short term, inventory buildup pressure may persist. Attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar, seasonal recovery of end-use demand, and changes in macro policies.